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Top Forex Events In The New Millennium
Fusion Markets

Foreign exchange (FOREX) goes through ups and downs. Some events had stripped bare the possible volatility of the market, causing fear in the hearts of investors. Here are some top events since the year 2000 that caused chaos in the markets.


2013 Forex Probe


The Forex Probe of 2013 was a scandal that revealed how international banks had been working together for at least a decade to tweak Forex market exchange rates.  

 

Again, this event was all about investor fears of market manipulation as a result of bank collusion.  It wasnt easy to trust the market again after such practices were revealed. 

 

Four major banks admitted involvement, but the 2013 Forex Probe remains one of the most impactful foreign exchange events since 2000, even though the banks paid up $6 billion in fines.  

 

Greek Debt Crisis


In 2013, the Greek economy revealed its fragility, although it already showed some cracks during the 2007 worldwide financial crisis.  


It looked like Greece was going into an irreparable downfall. Still, the European Union overextended itself by granting it a generous loan of £68 billion. While the EU might have saved Greece, this move would remain one of the top events in Forex history for such a large amount of money changing hands.  

 

The consequences of the crisis could still be felt as Greece’s debt problems reverberated in 2015. Because Greece couldn’t reach its deal, some currencies surged, such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc found which found themselves on the rise.  

 

However, other currencies didn’t fare so well in 2015. The Euro plunged in the Asian trading session. The dollar also experienced a one-month low of 122.10 yen.  

 

Political uncertainty in one country can affect many other countries, and sometimes the impact lasts for years. That is why the Greek Debt Crisis of 2013 makes it to our list of the most significant Forex events in the new millennium.  

 

2016 Sterling Flash Crash

 

Since we have already looked at what a flash crash is about, we can go straight to how the Sterling Pound lost its value within seconds on the 7th of October 2016.  

 

A fat finger error was suspected, but the Bank for International Settlements ruled that there was no proof it was the case. Further investigations revealed that algorithmic trading programs had triggered the crash. The algorithm issue was paired with traders who didn’t want to take much risk.  

 

GBP/USD - Sep-Nov 2016 - Forex chart

 

British Pound/U.S. Dollar – Sep-Nov 2016

 

 

2016 BREXIT

 

Brexit 2016 caused panic in the European Union, especially when its economic effects were felt. Of course, it also had an impact on the foreign exchange market. 

 

The story of Britain’s breakup with the European Union was one of the top events in politics and Forex history. It went to show just how intricately related these aspects were.  

 

The UK’s unexpected move was what created the panic. Understandably, something so unprecedented had to affect the market. Right before the votes were out, the British pound sterling was moving in an upswing trend. However, it ended in a closing of 8% down for the GBP/USD pair on that day. 

 

A slide preceded the Brexit-caused slump for about a year.  

 

USD/JPY and AUD/USD Flash Crash of 2019


You may believe that Apple is mainly influential in the technology market. Think again. Its reaches have some effects on the foreign exchange market, as well.  

 

Apple’s statement in January 2019 that emphasised the Chinese economy’s struggle had several investors selling their most volatile currencies. 

  

When investors lose confidence in the Chinese economy, their trust in the AUD and JPY also fluctuates. After all, Australia is its most important trading partner.  

 

Therefore, a simple statement from Apple in 2019 has caused one of the most significant foreign exchange crashes of recent years.  

 

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U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen – Jan 2019

 

Swiss Francs Crash 

 

In the same year, in February, the Swiss franc also suffered a crash. However, some considered this an inconsequential event.  

 

The Swiss Franc experienced a significant drop during the Asian trading session on the 10th of February. It dropped against the US dollar and other major peers.  

 

When the Japanese markets closed for National Foundation Day, the Swiss francs suffered from a lack of liquidity.  

 

Another critical Swiss franc crash happened a few years prior to this, in January 2015. The flash rally, as some call it, occurred after the Swiss National Bank announced that its currency would no longer be pegged at 1.20 against the Euro. Because of this, the franc went up by 20% against not only the Euro but also some major currencies.  

 

2020 Black Swan Event

 

The Black Swan event certainly caused a stir in the financial markets. Moreover, it points to the fall of the most popular of cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin. 

 

So, when the cryptocurrency fell to almost 4970 USD per coin, it caused sheer panic among investors. That was an 80% loss in value. For comparison, its 2017 value was at 19716 USD. 

 

Bitcoin was not alone in creating fear among investors, as Ethereum also dipped from 285 USD to 110 USD. COVID-19 was believed to be the cause of the plunge.  

 

Because the cryptocurrency crisis of 2022 was considered a Black Swan event, it affected other financial markets, including foreign exchange.  

 

The fear generated by black swans is especially fearsome due to their ability to wipe out entire accounts. Reliance on standard forecasting tools can fail to predict potential damages, and that is what makes black swan events so rare and devastating. 

 

Coronavirus Pandemic

 

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to make its effects known in various industries worldwide. During that crisis economic growth expectations were downgraded in fear that major economic sectors had to be shut down due to the increasing coronavirus cases. That uncertainty reduced the demand for local currencies and investment funds. In addition, it impacted exchange rates and the fluctuating value of the US dollar as a world reserve currency.  

 

As a result, economic and political measures created significant changes worldwide and left a mark in Forex history. 

 

Conclusion

 

While there may be more FOREX-related events in the past and the upcoming future that will affect the market, the above are the ones that still have tangible impacts in the past few years. It is crucial for forex traders to stay ahead of an ever-changing market, and one of the ways to achieve it is to understand its history. 

 

To access the world’s markets easier and at a lower cost get a live account with Fusion Markets. 



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10.01.2023
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Overview and Analysis of USD/JPY
Fusion Markets

Extremely liquid and highly traded, the USD/JPY pairing is one of the major pairs of the foreign exchange market, being the second most traded pair by volume behind EUR/USD. Used to denote how much 1 US Dollar (the base currency) converts to Japanese Yen (the quote currency), the volatility, reserve-held status of both currencies, and liquidity have made it a popular trading pair among Forex Traders.


Historically the Japanese Yen has fared well against the US Dollar in times of market turmoil, as many investors view the Yen as a safe-haven currency. This was most apparent during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 and post GFC market rebound.


Yen during the GFC

USD/JPY from 2005-2015



What factors affect USD/JPY?


The USD/JPY pair is influenced by both the US and Japan’s monetary policies, in particular those related to treasuries and interest rates.


Differences in policies and interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (FED) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are often one of the key drivers of the pair, and have in the past correlated closely with USD/JPY movements.


These differences have further been compounded with Japan’s introduction of Qualitative and Quantitative Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016.


Historically, when US treasury prices rise, the USD/JPY pair weakens. Similarly, when US treasuries fall, the US dollar strengthens against the Yen.


With bond yields being a key driver, factors that affect bond yields such as interest rate expectations and inflation can significantly affect the pair. For example, as rising interest rates lead to higher bond yields, it also subsequently leads to the USD/JPY strengthening.


Therefore, when the Fed or BOJ intervenes to control inflation, deflation or stagflation with changes in interest rates it affects USD/JPY.


While treasuries and interest rates are often seen as one of the core drivers of USD/JPY, similar to other Forex markets, a range of other economic factors also play a role in the movement of the pair.


Some other economic factors that have played a role in the past are: Japan’s import/export balance, natural disasters, GDP, CPI, unemployment rate and wage growth. Although these do not influence the pair as much as US treasuries and interest rates, they can create significant price movements depending on how unexpected the event is.


For example, following the 2011 Tsunami in Japan, the Yen surged against the US Dollar with pundits expecting that Japanese investors would have to repatriate to cover the cost of the damages.



USD/JPY March 2011



Why is the Yen weakening and USD/JPY soaring?


As mentioned above, interest rates and monetary policy are some of the biggest drivers of the pair. This was further magnified during the COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent Quantitative Easing (QE) policies of countries worldwide with stimulus schemes issued by many governments including the US and Japan.


In the case of the US this was one of the major factors to its rising inflation. As such, the US has begun implementing interest rate hikes, and is expected to more aggressively raise interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023.


In comparison, the BOJ has opted to not introduce any interest rate hikes in the short term and instead plans to continue with their stimulus and subsidies packages. Japan’s history with deflation and negative rates makes this position understandable, but the weakening Yen has made Haruhiko Kuroda, the Governor of the BOJ, express concerns.


Japan’s plans to continue with their proposed stimulus has led to the Yen weakening not only against the US Dollar but other foreign currencies where central banks plan to increase interest rates, such as the UK and GBP.


It will be important to keep an eye on USD/JPY as the monetary policies of the FED and BOJ continue to diverge.



How do I trade the USD/JPY pair?


As Treasury bonds tend to affect the pair, looking at yields across different maturities can be a good basis to begin your analysis. This can help forecast the future of the pair, and overall provide a solid fundamentals-based foundation for other analysis.


Another useful indicator, as USD/JPY can represent market confidence, is the S&P 500, as it may provide early warning signs of overall market reversals.


In terms of when to trade the pair, 12:00 to 15:00 GMT (when the Tokyo market isn’t open) has been one of the most volatile and best times to trade the pair. Even though the Tokyo Market isn’t open yet, this period tends to have high volatility as it is when the London and New York markets overlap.


In terms of when not to trade the pair, you want to avoid “quiet” times in the market such as 21:00-24:00 GMT when the New York market is closed, London is sleeping, and the Tokyo market is yet to open. Similarly, 03:00-5:00 GMT is considered another quiet period as the Tokyo market is nearing the end of the day, and the London and New York markets are not open.


Another consideration is your trading strategy. A commonly cited reason that USD/JPY is favoured by some traders is due to Japan’s traditionally low interest rates. These low interest rates make it a good pair to consider for those who are implementing carry trade strategies.

To learn more about currency pairs, and the foreign exchange market sign up to Fusion Markets and keep up with all the latest macroeconomic events.   

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Introducing Soft Commodities
Fusion Markets

We are excited to launch Soft commodities on our MT4/MT5 platform now to help you succeed in the markets.

 
Commodities that are grown rather than extracted or mined are called soft commodities. Soft commodities are among the oldest futures classes known to have been traded actively. Products in this category include soybeans, cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, rice, wheat, and all types of livestock.

Our platform now offers the following products

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Happy Trading!

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08.12.2021
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